NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GONZ TAM
Points 85.6 75.9
Total Points   161.5
Points From 2-Pointers 49.4 36.3
Points From 3-Pointers 23.3 23.3
Points From Free Throws 12.9 16.2
Shooting GONZ TAM
Field Goals Made 32.5 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 68.9
Field Goal % 54.2% 37.6%
2 Pointers Made 24.7 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.1 43.8
2 Point Shooting % 64.8% 41.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 25.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 31.0%
Free Throws Made 12.9 16.2
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 22.8
Free Throw % 74.4% 71.3%
Ball Control GONZ TAM
Rebounds 36.5 39.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 21.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 18.5
Turnovers 9.0 6.6
Blocked Shots 4.7 2.8
Steals 3.7 5.3
Fouls 15.1 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Gonzaga

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GONZ TAM
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.4 82.5
% of Possessions with GONZ TAM
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 48.1%
3 Point Attempt 27.1% 27.6%
Player Fouled 20.5% 21.4%
Turnover 12.8% 9.4%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 5.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken GONZ TAM
Shot Blocked 4.2% 7.9%
Offensive Rebound 29.2% 39.9%