NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSST TAM
Points 71.3 61.5
Total Points   132.8
Points From 2-Pointers 41.1 29.9
Points From 3-Pointers 19.2 20.8
Points From Free Throws 11.0 10.7
Shooting MSST TAM
Field Goals Made 26.9 21.9
Field Goals Attempted 51.4 59.5
Field Goal % 52.4% 36.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.5 15.0
2 Pointers Attempted 33.3 34.7
2 Point Shooting % 61.7% 43.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 18.1 24.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 28.0%
Free Throws Made 11.0 10.7
Free Throws Attempted 16.5 14.7
Free Throw % 66.5% 73.1%
Ball Control MSST TAM
Rebounds 37.2 29.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 17.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 11.9
Turnovers 14.6 10.7
Blocked Shots 4.9 2.4
Steals 5.5 6.7
Fouls 12.7 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: Miss State

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSST TAM
Total Possessions 67.3
Effective Scoring Chances 62.6 68.5
% of Possessions with MSST TAM
2 Point Attempt 42.6% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.2% 30.5%
Player Fouled 20.6% 18.9%
Turnover 21.6% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSST TAM
Shot Blocked 4.1% 9.6%
Offensive Rebound 35.8% 30.4%