NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DRKE VALP
Points 82.1 65.7
Total Points   147.9
Points From 2-Pointers 43.6 34.2
Points From 3-Pointers 23.9 21.6
Points From Free Throws 14.6 9.9
Shooting DRKE VALP
Field Goals Made 29.8 24.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.7 59.6
Field Goal % 50.7% 40.8%
2 Pointers Made 21.8 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.5 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 56.7% 45.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 39.4% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 14.6 9.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 14.1
Free Throw % 74.8% 70.2%
Ball Control DRKE VALP
Rebounds 37.9 31.4
Rebounds - Defensive 29.9 23.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 7.8
Turnovers 8.9 10.3
Blocked Shots 1.3 2.7
Steals 5.8 4.8
Fouls 13.2 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Drake

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DRKE VALP
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 70.4 68.7
% of Possessions with DRKE VALP
2 Point Attempt 47.9% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 27.7%
Player Fouled 21.3% 18.5%
Turnover 12.5% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken DRKE VALP
Shot Blocked 4.6% 2.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.5% 20.7%