NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BUT BAY
Points 74.2 81.4
Total Points   155.6
Points From 2-Pointers 37.2 43.7
Points From 3-Pointers 24.0 25.3
Points From Free Throws 13.1 12.3
Shooting BUT BAY
Field Goals Made 26.6 30.3
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 61.9
Field Goal % 46.2% 48.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 21.9
2 Pointers Attempted 34.8 39.2
2 Point Shooting % 53.5% 55.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 22.7 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 13.1 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 16.3 16.9
Free Throw % 80.1% 73.1%
Ball Control BUT BAY
Rebounds 29.3 37.2
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 6.4 11.1
Turnovers 10.6 9.8
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.3
Steals 5.5 7.3
Fouls 13.8 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Baylor

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BUT BAY
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 72.5
% of Possessions with BUT BAY
2 Point Attempt 44.1% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.8% 27.2%
Player Fouled 20.3% 19.4%
Turnover 14.8% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken BUT BAY
Shot Blocked 5.5% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 19.6% 32.7%