NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SAM MER
Points 82.0 72.5
Total Points   154.5
Points From 2-Pointers 38.5 39.6
Points From 3-Pointers 25.2 19.3
Points From Free Throws 18.3 13.5
Shooting SAM MER
Field Goals Made 27.6 26.3
Field Goals Attempted 55.7 58.7
Field Goal % 49.6% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 34.2 40.3
2 Point Shooting % 56.2% 49.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 21.5 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 39.0% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 18.3 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 25.9 19.8
Free Throw % 70.7% 67.9%
Ball Control SAM MER
Rebounds 34.2 34.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 22.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 11.2
Turnovers 11.3 13.0
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.7
Steals 7.8 6.5
Fouls 14.7 19.3

Playing Style Advantage: Mercer

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SAM MER
Total Possessions 73.2
Effective Scoring Chances 71.3 71.4
% of Possessions with SAM MER
2 Point Attempt 40.7% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 21.4%
Player Fouled 26.4% 20.1%
Turnover 15.4% 17.8%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 10.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken SAM MER
Shot Blocked 6.5% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 29.2% 31.2%