NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FRES BSU
Points 64.1 79.6
Total Points   143.7
Points From 2-Pointers 35.4 39.9
Points From 3-Pointers 17.7 26.0
Points From Free Throws 11.0 13.7
Shooting FRES BSU
Field Goals Made 23.6 28.6
Field Goals Attempted 52.1 58.8
Field Goal % 45.4% 48.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.7 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 31.8 35.3
2 Point Shooting % 55.7% 56.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 23.5
3 Point Shooting % 29.1% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 11.0 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 15.7 18.5
Free Throw % 69.6% 74.3%
Ball Control FRES BSU
Rebounds 26.5 37.2
Rebounds - Defensive 21.0 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 5.5 11.8
Turnovers 11.5 8.6
Blocked Shots 2.2 3.3
Steals 4.7 5.2
Fouls 14.2 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Fresno St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FRES BSU
Total Possessions 67.3
Effective Scoring Chances 61.3 70.5
% of Possessions with FRES BSU
2 Point Attempt 42.9% 44.1%
3 Point Attempt 27.4% 29.4%
Player Fouled 21.4% 21.0%
Turnover 17.1% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken FRES BSU
Shot Blocked 5.7% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 17.8% 35.9%