NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SAM BEL
Points 81.2 79.1
Total Points   160.3
Points From 2-Pointers 38.0 34.7
Points From 3-Pointers 29.2 27.9
Points From Free Throws 13.9 16.5
Shooting SAM BEL
Field Goals Made 28.8 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 61.3 56.1
Field Goal % 46.9% 47.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 35.0 30.6
2 Point Shooting % 54.3% 56.8%
3 Pointers Made 9.7 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 26.3 25.5
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 36.4%
Free Throws Made 13.9 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.7 22.6
Free Throw % 70.7% 73.1%
Ball Control SAM BEL
Rebounds 34.5 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 7.8
Turnovers 12.2 14.1
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.1
Steals 8.3 7.7
Fouls 17.4 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Samford

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SAM BEL
Total Possessions 76.2
Effective Scoring Chances 73.5 69.9
% of Possessions with SAM BEL
2 Point Attempt 40.3% 35.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.3% 29.9%
Player Fouled 20.9% 22.8%
Turnover 16.0% 18.5%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 10.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken SAM BEL
Shot Blocked 5.6% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 23.6%