NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CIT ETSU
Points 66.9 72.5
Total Points   139.5
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 37.2
Points From 3-Pointers 16.3 24.6
Points From Free Throws 15.4 10.7
Shooting CIT ETSU
Field Goals Made 23.1 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 52.9 59.9
Field Goal % 43.6% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 35.5 35.0
2 Point Shooting % 49.7% 53.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 17.5 24.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 33.1%
Free Throws Made 15.4 10.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 16.3
Free Throw % 71.4% 66.1%
Ball Control CIT ETSU
Rebounds 32.3 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 12.0
Turnovers 12.1 10.3
Blocked Shots 2.4 7.0
Steals 5.1 7.1
Fouls 12.5 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Citadel

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CIT ETSU
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 64.9 70.5
% of Possessions with CIT ETSU
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 21.9% 30.3%
Player Fouled 24.0% 18.2%
Turnover 17.6% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 10.3% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken CIT ETSU
Shot Blocked 11.8% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.8% 33.1%