NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CIT CHSO
Points 70.0 65.7
Total Points   135.8
Points From 2-Pointers 43.1 35.1
Points From 3-Pointers 14.1 21.6
Points From Free Throws 12.8 9.1
Shooting CIT CHSO
Field Goals Made 26.3 24.7
Field Goals Attempted 57.2 57.8
Field Goal % 45.9% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made 21.5 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 40.4 36.2
2 Point Shooting % 53.3% 48.5%
3 Pointers Made 4.7 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 16.7 21.6
3 Point Shooting % 28.1% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 12.8 9.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 13.0
Free Throw % 71.4% 69.7%
Ball Control CIT CHSO
Rebounds 35.4 33.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 8.2
Turnovers 8.7 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.2 3.6
Steals 4.8 3.8
Fouls 11.9 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Citadel

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CIT CHSO
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.7 66.0
% of Possessions with CIT CHSO
2 Point Attempt 52.0% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 21.5% 28.1%
Player Fouled 21.2% 17.6%
Turnover 12.8% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken CIT CHSO
Shot Blocked 6.4% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 23.3%