NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SCST UNCA
Points 67.3 76.3
Total Points   143.6
Points From 2-Pointers 33.5 32.1
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 22.3
Points From Free Throws 15.2 21.9
Shooting SCST UNCA
Field Goals Made 23.0 23.5
Field Goals Attempted 61.4 49.1
Field Goal % 37.4% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 16.0
2 Pointers Attempted 41.9 28.6
2 Point Shooting % 40.0% 56.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.5 20.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 15.2 21.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.7 29.2
Free Throw % 70.0% 75.0%
Ball Control SCST UNCA
Rebounds 37.2 34.4
Rebounds - Defensive 21.6 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 15.5 8.1
Turnovers 12.2 13.5
Blocked Shots 3.7 4.0
Steals 7.5 5.6
Fouls 21.1 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: S Car State

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SCST UNCA
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 75.6 66.8
% of Possessions with SCST UNCA
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 35.0%
3 Point Attempt 21.8% 25.0%
Player Fouled 20.1% 29.2%
Turnover 16.8% 18.7%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 10.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken SCST UNCA
Shot Blocked 8.2% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 37.2% 27.3%