NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SCST USF
Points 62.3 77.8
Total Points   140.1
Points From 2-Pointers 30.6 30.7
Points From 3-Pointers 17.5 25.4
Points From Free Throws 14.2 21.7
Shooting SCST USF
Field Goals Made 21.1 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.9 50.2
Field Goal % 35.9% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 15.4
2 Pointers Attempted 39.9 27.2
2 Point Shooting % 38.4% 56.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 19.0 23.1
3 Point Shooting % 30.7% 36.7%
Free Throws Made 14.2 21.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 29.9
Free Throw % 70.0% 72.6%
Ball Control SCST USF
Rebounds 36.5 35.6
Rebounds - Defensive 22.3 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 14.2 8.9
Turnovers 13.3 11.8
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.6
Steals 6.4 7.0
Fouls 20.8 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: S Car State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SCST USF
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 72.4 68.6
% of Possessions with SCST USF
2 Point Attempt 45.8% 33.3%
3 Point Attempt 21.8% 28.3%
Player Fouled 20.6% 29.1%
Turnover 18.6% 16.6%
Opponent Steal 9.8% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken SCST USF
Shot Blocked 7.2% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 34.8% 28.6%