NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FRES VAN
Points 70.9 73.1
Total Points   144.0
Points From 2-Pointers 35.5 39.3
Points From 3-Pointers 25.3 21.4
Points From Free Throws 10.0 12.4
Shooting FRES VAN
Field Goals Made 26.2 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 60.2
Field Goal % 46.4% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 19.7
2 Pointers Attempted 32.9 36.8
2 Point Shooting % 54.0% 53.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 30.4%
Free Throws Made 10.0 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 14.4 17.6
Free Throw % 69.6% 70.7%
Ball Control FRES VAN
Rebounds 32.9 35.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.4 10.9
Turnovers 11.1 8.1
Blocked Shots 1.7 4.3
Steals 4.3 5.5
Fouls 13.9 12.6

Playing Style Advantage: Fresno St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FRES VAN
Total Possessions 68.5
Effective Scoring Chances 64.8 71.3
% of Possessions with FRES VAN
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 30.4% 29.2%
Player Fouled 18.3% 20.3%
Turnover 16.1% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken FRES VAN
Shot Blocked 7.2% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 22.9% 30.0%