NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FRES WYO
Points 72.6 75.6
Total Points   148.2
Points From 2-Pointers 38.8 37.1
Points From 3-Pointers 23.6 24.4
Points From Free Throws 10.2 14.0
Shooting FRES WYO
Field Goals Made 27.3 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 56.1
Field Goal % 48.5% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 33.4 34.8
2 Point Shooting % 58.1% 53.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 22.8 21.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 38.3%
Free Throws Made 10.2 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 14.7 18.7
Free Throw % 69.6% 75.2%
Ball Control FRES WYO
Rebounds 30.1 33.1
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 9.1
Turnovers 10.3 9.7
Blocked Shots 2.7 2.8
Steals 6.5 4.5
Fouls 15.8 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: Fresno St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FRES WYO
Total Possessions 68.1
Effective Scoring Chances 65.1 67.5
% of Possessions with FRES WYO
2 Point Attempt 43.6% 44.4%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 27.2%
Player Fouled 19.2% 23.2%
Turnover 15.2% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken FRES WYO
Shot Blocked 5.1% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.4% 28.6%