NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring YALE HARV
Points 72.7 64.1
Total Points   136.8
Points From 2-Pointers 38.2 29.5
Points From 3-Pointers 23.4 21.5
Points From Free Throws 11.1 13.1
Shooting YALE HARV
Field Goals Made 26.9 21.9
Field Goals Attempted 61.1 54.0
Field Goal % 44.0% 40.6%
2 Pointers Made 19.1 14.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.2 32.0
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 46.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 32.5%
Free Throws Made 11.1 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 15.9 18.8
Free Throw % 69.8% 69.8%
Ball Control YALE HARV
Rebounds 37.9 33.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 7.3
Turnovers 8.4 10.9
Blocked Shots 4.5 3.8
Steals 6.2 5.1
Fouls 14.5 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: Harvard

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats YALE HARV
Total Possessions 68.5
Effective Scoring Chances 70.4 64.9
% of Possessions with YALE HARV
2 Point Attempt 48.8% 41.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.3% 28.4%
Player Fouled 19.6% 21.2%
Turnover 12.2% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken YALE HARV
Shot Blocked 7.2% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 28.2% 20.8%