NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSST ALA
Points 79.4 83.4
Total Points   162.8
Points From 2-Pointers 42.4 36.3
Points From 3-Pointers 19.2 30.7
Points From Free Throws 17.8 16.4
Shooting MSST ALA
Field Goals Made 27.6 28.4
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 61.8
Field Goal % 46.3% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 21.2 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.0 29.2
2 Point Shooting % 55.8% 62.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 10.2
3 Pointers Attempted 21.6 32.6
3 Point Shooting % 29.6% 31.4%
Free Throws Made 17.8 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 27.1 21.3
Free Throw % 65.5% 76.9%
Ball Control MSST ALA
Rebounds 36.9 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 11.3
Turnovers 11.5 11.8
Blocked Shots 3.3 4.1
Steals 8.1 6.6
Fouls 16.9 17.9

Playing Style Advantage: Miss State

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSST ALA
Total Possessions 75.6
Effective Scoring Chances 76.3 75.2
% of Possessions with MSST ALA
2 Point Attempt 42.5% 33.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.2% 37.0%
Player Fouled 23.6% 22.3%
Turnover 15.2% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 10.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSST ALA
Shot Blocked 6.7% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 32.6% 31.5%