NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FRES ORE
Points 66.0 80.8
Total Points   146.8
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 44.5
Points From 3-Pointers 21.7 23.5
Points From Free Throws 10.9 12.8
Shooting FRES ORE
Field Goals Made 23.9 30.1
Field Goals Attempted 54.8 59.5
Field Goal % 43.7% 50.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 22.2
2 Pointers Attempted 33.0 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 50.5% 59.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 22.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 10.9 12.8
Free Throws Attempted 15.6 17.6
Free Throw % 69.6% 72.9%
Ball Control FRES ORE
Rebounds 28.6 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 22.0 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 10.2
Turnovers 11.8 8.4
Blocked Shots 2.1 5.3
Steals 4.7 6.2
Fouls 14.7 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Fresno St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FRES ORE
Total Possessions 68.7
Effective Scoring Chances 63.5 70.5
% of Possessions with FRES ORE
2 Point Attempt 42.6% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 28.1% 27.6%
Player Fouled 19.6% 21.4%
Turnover 17.2% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken FRES ORE
Shot Blocked 8.9% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 20.1% 31.6%