NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FRES ORE
Points 63.9 75.2
Total Points   139.1
Points From 2-Pointers 24.3 37.7
Points From 3-Pointers 29.3 25.4
Points From Free Throws 10.3 12.1
Shooting FRES ORE
Field Goals Made 21.9 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 59.4
Field Goal % 36.6% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 12.2 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 27.8 36.9
2 Point Shooting % 43.8% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made 9.8 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 32.2 22.5
3 Point Shooting % 30.4% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 10.3 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 14.3 18.0
Free Throw % 71.5% 67.4%
Ball Control FRES ORE
Rebounds 37.0 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 26.9
Rebounds - Offensive 13.0 11.2
Turnovers 11.0 8.4
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.3
Steals 2.7 5.4
Fouls 13.5 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Fresno St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FRES ORE
Total Possessions 67.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.5 70.2
% of Possessions with FRES ORE
2 Point Attempt 33.9% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 39.3% 28.1%
Player Fouled 19.2% 20.0%
Turnover 16.3% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 4.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken FRES ORE
Shot Blocked 5.7% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 32.6% 31.8%