NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SAM MORE
Points 75.1 73.7
Total Points   148.9
Points From 2-Pointers 36.6 31.9
Points From 3-Pointers 23.6 27.5
Points From Free Throws 15.0 14.4
Shooting SAM MORE
Field Goals Made 26.1 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 55.3
Field Goal % 45.4% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 15.9
2 Pointers Attempted 36.0 29.0
2 Point Shooting % 50.8% 54.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 9.2
3 Pointers Attempted 21.6 26.3
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 15.0 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 19.7
Free Throw % 70.7% 73.2%
Ball Control SAM MORE
Rebounds 30.5 37.2
Rebounds - Defensive 22.1 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 11.0
Turnovers 10.1 14.3
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.4
Steals 7.8 6.0
Fouls 15.4 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Samford

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SAM MORE
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 68.3
% of Possessions with SAM MORE
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 34.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 31.4%
Player Fouled 23.8% 21.5%
Turnover 14.2% 20.0%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 10.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken SAM MORE
Shot Blocked 8.0% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.2% 33.3%