NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SCST WIN
Points 69.1 73.3
Total Points   142.5
Points From 2-Pointers 33.3 28.6
Points From 3-Pointers 20.3 19.5
Points From Free Throws 15.5 25.2
Shooting SCST WIN
Field Goals Made 23.4 20.8
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 44.4
Field Goal % 39.2% 46.9%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 14.3
2 Pointers Attempted 37.7 24.9
2 Point Shooting % 44.2% 57.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 22.2 19.5
3 Point Shooting % 30.5% 33.3%
Free Throws Made 15.5 25.2
Free Throws Attempted 22.1 36.4
Free Throw % 70.0% 69.3%
Ball Control SCST WIN
Rebounds 36.5 33.8
Rebounds - Defensive 20.8 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 15.7 9.3
Turnovers 13.0 15.0
Blocked Shots 4.6 2.5
Steals 7.8 5.6
Fouls 24.4 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: S Car State

Expected Effect: +1.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SCST WIN
Total Possessions 72.3
Effective Scoring Chances 75.0 66.5
% of Possessions with SCST WIN
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 29.8%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 23.4%
Player Fouled 22.1% 33.7%
Turnover 17.9% 20.8%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 10.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken SCST WIN
Shot Blocked 5.7% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 39.0% 30.9%