NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FRES AFA
Points 69.6 70.3
Total Points   139.9
Points From 2-Pointers 35.3 32.0
Points From 3-Pointers 21.1 29.1
Points From Free Throws 13.1 9.2
Shooting FRES AFA
Field Goals Made 24.7 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 49.9 53.4
Field Goal % 49.4% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 16.0
2 Pointers Attempted 31.2 27.9
2 Point Shooting % 56.6% 57.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 18.8 25.4
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 13.1 9.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.9 13.4
Free Throw % 69.6% 68.7%
Ball Control FRES AFA
Rebounds 29.8 28.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.4 20.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 7.6
Turnovers 10.9 10.3
Blocked Shots 2.2 4.6
Steals 5.3 5.6
Fouls 13.5 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Air Force

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FRES AFA
Total Possessions 64.5
Effective Scoring Chances 60.9 61.8
% of Possessions with FRES AFA
2 Point Attempt 42.3% 38.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 34.9%
Player Fouled 23.0% 20.9%
Turnover 17.0% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken FRES AFA
Shot Blocked 8.7% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.0% 25.3%