NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCA DAY
Points 66.2 79.2
Total Points   145.3
Points From 2-Pointers 31.7 34.3
Points From 3-Pointers 24.0 29.0
Points From Free Throws 10.5 15.8
Shooting UNCA DAY
Field Goals Made 23.8 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.2 55.2
Field Goal % 41.0% 48.6%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 34.1 31.1
2 Point Shooting % 46.5% 55.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 24.1 24.2
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 40.0%
Free Throws Made 10.5 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 14.0 21.2
Free Throw % 75.0% 74.7%
Ball Control UNCA DAY
Rebounds 30.7 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 28.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 8.4
Turnovers 10.1 9.2
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.8
Steals 4.4 5.5
Fouls 14.8 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Asheville

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCA DAY
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 66.3 67.8
% of Possessions with UNCA DAY
2 Point Attempt 43.7% 39.6%
3 Point Attempt 30.9% 30.9%
Player Fouled 19.5% 21.6%
Turnover 14.7% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCA DAY
Shot Blocked 7.0% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 26.9%