NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BUT PROV
Points 69.8 73.6
Total Points   143.3
Points From 2-Pointers 34.4 38.0
Points From 3-Pointers 22.8 24.9
Points From Free Throws 12.6 10.7
Shooting BUT PROV
Field Goals Made 24.8 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 60.5 61.3
Field Goal % 41.0% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 39.2 35.0
2 Point Shooting % 43.8% 54.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.3 26.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 31.5%
Free Throws Made 12.6 10.7
Free Throws Attempted 15.7 14.4
Free Throw % 80.1% 74.5%
Ball Control BUT PROV
Rebounds 34.6 38.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.9 29.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 9.0
Turnovers 10.4 10.8
Blocked Shots 2.5 4.5
Steals 5.9 6.8
Fouls 13.2 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Butler

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BUT PROV
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 69.5 70.3
% of Possessions with BUT PROV
2 Point Attempt 48.0% 42.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.1% 32.0%
Player Fouled 18.8% 18.3%
Turnover 14.4% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken BUT PROV
Shot Blocked 7.4% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 21.1% 25.1%