NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GONZ SMC
Points 69.6 71.1
Total Points   140.7
Points From 2-Pointers 42.7 37.2
Points From 3-Pointers 13.9 23.8
Points From Free Throws 13.1 10.1
Shooting GONZ SMC
Field Goals Made 26.0 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 55.2 62.0
Field Goal % 47.1% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made 21.4 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 42.0 39.9
2 Point Shooting % 50.8% 46.6%
3 Pointers Made 4.6 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 13.2 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 13.1 10.1
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 15.1
Free Throw % 73.6% 67.1%
Ball Control GONZ SMC
Rebounds 31.4 38.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.8 13.4
Turnovers 8.1 8.6
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.9
Steals 5.0 5.0
Fouls 12.7 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GONZ SMC
Total Possessions 66.8
Effective Scoring Chances 65.5 71.6
% of Possessions with GONZ SMC
2 Point Attempt 56.2% 48.9%
3 Point Attempt 17.6% 27.1%
Player Fouled 22.1% 19.0%
Turnover 12.1% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken GONZ SMC
Shot Blocked 4.8% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 21.5% 35.3%