NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSST SCAR
Points 78.7 76.4
Total Points   155.1
Points From 2-Pointers 45.0 35.4
Points From 3-Pointers 21.6 24.2
Points From Free Throws 12.0 16.8
Shooting MSST SCAR
Field Goals Made 29.7 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 63.6 62.6
Field Goal % 46.8% 41.2%
2 Pointers Made 22.5 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 34.2
2 Point Shooting % 57.0% 51.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 24.1 28.5
3 Point Shooting % 30.0% 28.4%
Free Throws Made 12.0 16.8
Free Throws Attempted 18.7 21.3
Free Throw % 64.4% 78.7%
Ball Control MSST SCAR
Rebounds 40.8 35.7
Rebounds - Defensive 29.6 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 9.4
Turnovers 9.0 7.4
Blocked Shots 4.0 2.8
Steals 5.1 4.9
Fouls 14.1 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: Mississippi St

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSST SCAR
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 75.1 74.8
% of Possessions with MSST SCAR
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 40.8%
3 Point Attempt 28.2% 33.9%
Player Fouled 19.6% 19.3%
Turnover 12.4% 10.2%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSST SCAR
Shot Blocked 4.6% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 29.8% 24.0%