NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSST SCAR
Points 78.5 69.9
Total Points   148.4
Points From 2-Pointers 44.0 28.4
Points From 3-Pointers 22.6 24.5
Points From Free Throws 11.9 17.0
Shooting MSST SCAR
Field Goals Made 29.5 22.3
Field Goals Attempted 60.4 54.4
Field Goal % 48.9% 41.1%
2 Pointers Made 22.0 14.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.3 30.2
2 Point Shooting % 59.0% 47.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 24.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 11.9 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 23.7
Free Throw % 69.6% 71.7%
Ball Control MSST SCAR
Rebounds 34.3 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 9.8
Turnovers 8.7 12.3
Blocked Shots 6.2 2.4
Steals 8.8 4.7
Fouls 16.2 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Mississippi St

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSST SCAR
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.8 68.2
% of Possessions with MSST SCAR
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 36.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 29.1%
Player Fouled 20.0% 22.9%
Turnover 12.3% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 12.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSST SCAR
Shot Blocked 4.5% 10.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.1% 27.8%