NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSST FLA
Points 78.9 79.8
Total Points   158.6
Points From 2-Pointers 44.0 41.8
Points From 3-Pointers 18.8 21.5
Points From Free Throws 16.1 16.5
Shooting MSST FLA
Field Goals Made 28.3 28.1
Field Goals Attempted 61.1 62.0
Field Goal % 46.3% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 22.0 20.9
2 Pointers Attempted 41.7 38.4
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 54.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 30.3%
Free Throws Made 16.1 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 24.5 22.5
Free Throw % 65.5% 73.2%
Ball Control MSST FLA
Rebounds 36.6 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 12.3
Turnovers 10.6 10.8
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.7
Steals 7.5 6.3
Fouls 16.0 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: Florida

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSST FLA
Total Possessions 74.7
Effective Scoring Chances 75.7 76.2
% of Possessions with MSST FLA
2 Point Attempt 47.2% 43.6%
3 Point Attempt 22.0% 26.8%
Player Fouled 22.0% 21.4%
Turnover 14.2% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 10.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSST FLA
Shot Blocked 7.7% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 30.9% 33.0%