NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FRES CAL
Points 70.7 79.2
Total Points   149.9
Points From 2-Pointers 36.3 39.1
Points From 3-Pointers 22.6 27.8
Points From Free Throws 11.9 12.3
Shooting FRES CAL
Field Goals Made 25.7 28.8
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 62.5
Field Goal % 44.5% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 35.6 36.7
2 Point Shooting % 51.0% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 25.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 11.9 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 16.8
Free Throw % 69.6% 73.2%
Ball Control FRES CAL
Rebounds 32.1 38.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 11.1
Turnovers 10.3 8.8
Blocked Shots 2.1 3.9
Steals 4.8 5.3
Fouls 13.6 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Fresno St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FRES CAL
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 67.5 73.2
% of Possessions with FRES CAL
2 Point Attempt 44.8% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.8% 31.2%
Player Fouled 19.8% 19.1%
Turnover 14.6% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken FRES CAL
Shot Blocked 6.3% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 20.2% 30.7%