NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FRES CAL
Points 65.8 62.7
Total Points   128.5
Points From 2-Pointers 25.4 32.1
Points From 3-Pointers 26.7 18.0
Points From Free Throws 13.7 12.5
Shooting FRES CAL
Field Goals Made 21.6 22.1
Field Goals Attempted 52.2 55.6
Field Goal % 41.3% 39.7%
2 Pointers Made 12.7 16.1
2 Pointers Attempted 27.7 38.7
2 Point Shooting % 45.8% 41.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 24.5 16.8
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 13.7 12.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 17.1
Free Throw % 71.8% 73.4%
Ball Control FRES CAL
Rebounds 36.5 32.8
Rebounds - Defensive 27.9 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 7.8
Turnovers 10.8 8.7
Blocked Shots 3.6 2.5
Steals 3.1 3.7
Fouls 15.1 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Fresno St

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FRES CAL
Total Possessions 66.3
Effective Scoring Chances 64.2 65.5
% of Possessions with FRES CAL
2 Point Attempt 36.5% 51.3%
3 Point Attempt 32.3% 22.2%
Player Fouled 23.7% 22.7%
Turnover 16.3% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 4.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken FRES CAL
Shot Blocked 4.6% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.7% 22.0%