NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SCST UMES
Points 69.8 62.3
Total Points   132.1
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 30.7
Points From 3-Pointers 18.3 14.6
Points From Free Throws 16.3 17.0
Shooting SCST UMES
Field Goals Made 23.7 20.2
Field Goals Attempted 58.2 51.1
Field Goal % 40.7% 39.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 15.3
2 Pointers Attempted 38.5 33.3
2 Point Shooting % 45.6% 46.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 4.9
3 Pointers Attempted 19.7 17.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.0% 27.3%
Free Throws Made 16.3 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 23.4 23.7
Free Throw % 70.0% 71.8%
Ball Control SCST UMES
Rebounds 41.0 32.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 22.8
Rebounds - Offensive 15.7 9.3
Turnovers 12.9 14.7
Blocked Shots 4.0 2.5
Steals 8.0 6.6
Fouls 17.9 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: S Car State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SCST UMES
Total Possessions 71.3
Effective Scoring Chances 74.1 65.9
% of Possessions with SCST UMES
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 40.5%
3 Point Attempt 22.3% 21.7%
Player Fouled 22.3% 25.1%
Turnover 18.1% 20.6%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 11.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SCST UMES
Shot Blocked 5.0% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 40.8% 26.8%