NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SAM ALST
Points 84.1 64.3
Total Points   148.5
Points From 2-Pointers 30.3 30.5
Points From 3-Pointers 34.4 19.6
Points From Free Throws 19.4 14.2
Shooting SAM ALST
Field Goals Made 26.6 21.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.2 64.6
Field Goal % 48.3% 33.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.2 15.3
2 Pointers Attempted 26.9 39.7
2 Point Shooting % 56.3% 38.4%
3 Pointers Made 11.5 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 28.3 24.9
3 Point Shooting % 40.6% 26.3%
Free Throws Made 19.4 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 27.4 19.6
Free Throw % 70.7% 72.4%
Ball Control SAM ALST
Rebounds 41.7 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 32.4 23.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 12.9
Turnovers 13.3 11.7
Blocked Shots 4.8 4.9
Steals 6.5 8.2
Fouls 15.1 19.8

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama St

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SAM ALST
Total Possessions 75.5
Effective Scoring Chances 71.5 76.7
% of Possessions with SAM ALST
2 Point Attempt 31.0% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 32.6% 27.6%
Player Fouled 26.3% 20.0%
Turnover 17.6% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 10.9% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken SAM ALST
Shot Blocked 7.8% 8.9%
Offensive Rebound 28.3% 28.5%