NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BUT CONN
Points 62.5 83.3
Total Points   145.9
Points From 2-Pointers 30.9 47.4
Points From 3-Pointers 18.6 24.9
Points From Free Throws 13.1 11.1
Shooting BUT CONN
Field Goals Made 21.6 32.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.1 63.6
Field Goal % 36.6% 50.3%
2 Pointers Made 15.4 23.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.0 39.4
2 Point Shooting % 39.5% 60.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 24.2
3 Point Shooting % 30.8% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 13.1 11.1
Free Throws Attempted 16.3 14.7
Free Throw % 80.1% 75.1%
Ball Control BUT CONN
Rebounds 29.8 42.1
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 30.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 11.4
Turnovers 9.5 8.1
Blocked Shots 2.4 6.1
Steals 4.4 6.4
Fouls 12.4 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BUT CONN
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.8 72.9
% of Possessions with BUT CONN
2 Point Attempt 49.0% 48.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 29.5%
Player Fouled 19.7% 17.8%
Turnover 13.6% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken BUT CONN
Shot Blocked 9.7% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 19.9% 34.0%