NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GONZ CONN
Points 75.9 72.5
Total Points   148.4
Points From 2-Pointers 39.9 34.9
Points From 3-Pointers 17.0 23.9
Points From Free Throws 18.9 13.7
Shooting GONZ CONN
Field Goals Made 25.6 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 58.1
Field Goal % 44.6% 43.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 41.4 32.7
2 Point Shooting % 48.2% 53.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 16.1 25.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 31.4%
Free Throws Made 18.9 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 24.0 17.6
Free Throw % 79.0% 77.8%
Ball Control GONZ CONN
Rebounds 33.5 35.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 10.3
Turnovers 7.7 10.6
Blocked Shots 2.7 5.2
Steals 5.5 4.1
Fouls 14.2 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: UConn

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GONZ CONN
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 70.9 69.2
% of Possessions with GONZ CONN
2 Point Attempt 51.3% 40.4%
3 Point Attempt 19.9% 31.4%
Player Fouled 24.5% 20.3%
Turnover 11.1% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken GONZ CONN
Shot Blocked 9.1% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 26.4% 29.6%