NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BUT CONN
Points 68.9 85.7
Total Points   154.5
Points From 2-Pointers 31.4 48.0
Points From 3-Pointers 17.2 26.9
Points From Free Throws 20.3 10.8
Shooting BUT CONN
Field Goals Made 21.4 33.0
Field Goals Attempted 56.1 61.5
Field Goal % 38.2% 53.6%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 24.0
2 Pointers Attempted 37.5 36.4
2 Point Shooting % 41.9% 65.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 18.6 25.1
3 Point Shooting % 30.7% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 20.3 10.8
Free Throws Attempted 28.3 15.7
Free Throw % 71.7% 68.6%
Ball Control BUT CONN
Rebounds 31.8 37.8
Rebounds - Defensive 21.1 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 10.1
Turnovers 10.0 9.9
Blocked Shots 2.5 8.0
Steals 5.3 5.6
Fouls 14.5 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: UConn

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BUT CONN
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 71.7 71.4
% of Possessions with BUT CONN
2 Point Attempt 44.1% 44.3%
3 Point Attempt 21.9% 30.5%
Player Fouled 26.2% 20.4%
Turnover 14.1% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken BUT CONN
Shot Blocked 13.2% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 27.8% 32.4%