NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BUT CONN
Points 69.2 80.7
Total Points   149.9
Points From 2-Pointers 29.9 45.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.9 24.7
Points From Free Throws 18.4 10.8
Shooting BUT CONN
Field Goals Made 21.9 30.8
Field Goals Attempted 52.9 63.0
Field Goal % 41.4% 48.9%
2 Pointers Made 14.9 22.6
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 38.4
2 Point Shooting % 43.9% 58.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 18.9 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 18.4 10.8
Free Throws Attempted 25.0 13.9
Free Throw % 73.6% 77.8%
Ball Control BUT CONN
Rebounds 30.0 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 22.7 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 11.2
Turnovers 8.3 6.8
Blocked Shots 1.9 6.4
Steals 3.3 4.8
Fouls 11.7 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: Butler

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BUT CONN
Total Possessions 67.4
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 71.8
% of Possessions with BUT CONN
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 24.4% 31.1%
Player Fouled 26.1% 17.4%
Turnover 12.3% 10.1%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 4.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken BUT CONN
Shot Blocked 10.3% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 21.5% 33.0%