NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CIT VMI
Points 79.4 67.9
Total Points   147.3
Points From 2-Pointers 45.5 40.3
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 19.0
Points From Free Throws 14.5 8.7
Shooting CIT VMI
Field Goals Made 29.2 26.4
Field Goals Attempted 59.3 59.2
Field Goal % 49.3% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 22.8 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 40.1 38.6
2 Point Shooting % 56.7% 52.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 19.2 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 30.6%
Free Throws Made 14.5 8.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 12.3
Free Throw % 71.4% 70.4%
Ball Control CIT VMI
Rebounds 36.6 31.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 6.9
Turnovers 10.6 13.4
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.0
Steals 7.1 5.4
Fouls 12.4 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: VMI

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CIT VMI
Total Possessions 73.5
Effective Scoring Chances 71.7 66.9
% of Possessions with CIT VMI
2 Point Attempt 48.1% 47.4%
3 Point Attempt 23.0% 25.4%
Player Fouled 20.5% 16.8%
Turnover 14.5% 18.2%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 9.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken CIT VMI
Shot Blocked 5.1% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.4% 19.8%