NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SAM NORAL
Points 87.1 74.3
Total Points   161.4
Points From 2-Pointers 39.7 34.3
Points From 3-Pointers 26.7 21.3
Points From Free Throws 20.7 18.7
Shooting SAM NORAL
Field Goals Made 28.7 24.3
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 57.1
Field Goal % 50.8% 42.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.8 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 34.9 36.4
2 Point Shooting % 56.8% 47.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 21.6 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 41.2% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 20.7 18.7
Free Throws Attempted 29.2 24.2
Free Throw % 70.7% 77.2%
Ball Control SAM NORAL
Rebounds 35.1 33.4
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 23.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 9.4
Turnovers 9.6 12.3
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.5
Steals 6.4 5.2
Fouls 18.1 19.6

Playing Style Advantage: N Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SAM NORAL
Total Possessions 74.7
Effective Scoring Chances 73.9 71.8
% of Possessions with SAM NORAL
2 Point Attempt 41.1% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 24.3%
Player Fouled 26.3% 24.3%
Turnover 12.9% 16.5%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken SAM NORAL
Shot Blocked 6.3% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 26.9% 26.4%