NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FRES UNM
Points 65.5 83.5
Total Points   149.0
Points From 2-Pointers 35.0 50.4
Points From 3-Pointers 19.1 19.9
Points From Free Throws 11.3 13.2
Shooting FRES UNM
Field Goals Made 23.9 31.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.7 64.8
Field Goal % 42.1% 49.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 25.2
2 Pointers Attempted 35.6 45.6
2 Point Shooting % 49.2% 55.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.1 19.2
3 Point Shooting % 30.2% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 11.3 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 16.3 18.3
Free Throw % 69.6% 72.3%
Ball Control FRES UNM
Rebounds 30.2 40.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 27.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 12.8
Turnovers 13.0 7.8
Blocked Shots 2.6 6.9
Steals 4.9 7.1
Fouls 13.9 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: New Mexico

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FRES UNM
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 65.5 76.2
% of Possessions with FRES UNM
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 53.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.0% 22.6%
Player Fouled 19.3% 19.5%
Turnover 18.2% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken FRES UNM
Shot Blocked 10.9% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 20.8% 35.7%