NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SAM FUR
Points 86.6 78.3
Total Points   164.9
Points From 2-Pointers 44.7 32.2
Points From 3-Pointers 27.2 29.7
Points From Free Throws 14.7 16.4
Shooting SAM FUR
Field Goals Made 31.4 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 60.0 60.0
Field Goal % 52.4% 43.3%
2 Pointers Made 22.3 16.1
2 Pointers Attempted 36.7 29.3
2 Point Shooting % 60.8% 55.0%
3 Pointers Made 9.1 9.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.2 30.8
3 Point Shooting % 39.0% 32.2%
Free Throws Made 14.7 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 22.6
Free Throw % 70.7% 72.6%
Ball Control SAM FUR
Rebounds 34.0 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 11.3
Turnovers 11.2 13.0
Blocked Shots 4.1 2.9
Steals 8.0 6.8
Fouls 16.1 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Samford

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SAM FUR
Total Possessions 75.8
Effective Scoring Chances 72.6 74.1
% of Possessions with SAM FUR
2 Point Attempt 43.2% 33.0%
3 Point Attempt 27.3% 34.7%
Player Fouled 22.4% 21.3%
Turnover 14.8% 17.2%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 10.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken SAM FUR
Shot Blocked 4.9% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.1% 30.3%