NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CIT FUR
Points 73.4 79.7
Total Points   153.2
Points From 2-Pointers 44.1 37.7
Points From 3-Pointers 16.9 31.5
Points From Free Throws 12.4 10.6
Shooting CIT FUR
Field Goals Made 27.7 29.4
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 60.7
Field Goal % 49.0% 48.4%
2 Pointers Made 22.0 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 39.0 30.2
2 Point Shooting % 56.5% 62.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 10.5
3 Pointers Attempted 17.5 30.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 12.4 10.6
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 14.5
Free Throw % 71.4% 72.6%
Ball Control CIT FUR
Rebounds 32.1 32.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 8.6
Turnovers 11.0 9.5
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.5
Steals 5.0 6.6
Fouls 12.5 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Citadel

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CIT FUR
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 66.8 69.6
% of Possessions with CIT FUR
2 Point Attempt 49.3% 37.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.0% 38.0%
Player Fouled 20.7% 17.7%
Turnover 15.6% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken CIT FUR
Shot Blocked 5.9% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 23.2% 25.7%