NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCA HP
Points 76.2 80.0
Total Points   156.2
Points From 2-Pointers 37.6 36.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.3 22.8
Points From Free Throws 19.4 20.7
Shooting UNCA HP
Field Goals Made 25.2 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 55.8 59.3
Field Goal % 45.2% 43.6%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 18.3
2 Pointers Attempted 38.1 36.0
2 Point Shooting % 49.3% 50.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 17.7 23.3
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 19.4 20.7
Free Throws Attempted 25.8 26.5
Free Throw % 75.0% 77.9%
Ball Control UNCA HP
Rebounds 31.0 39.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.1 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 13.5
Turnovers 9.0 9.8
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.4
Steals 4.1 4.7
Fouls 17.2 18.7

Playing Style Advantage: High Point

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCA HP
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 71.0 75.7
% of Possessions with UNCA HP
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 41.4%
3 Point Attempt 21.7% 26.8%
Player Fouled 25.9% 23.9%
Turnover 12.4% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCA HP
Shot Blocked 5.8% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 22.9% 36.8%