NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CIT PITT
Points 60.2 82.4
Total Points   142.6
Points From 2-Pointers 32.5 40.0
Points From 3-Pointers 16.3 31.3
Points From Free Throws 11.4 11.1
Shooting CIT PITT
Field Goals Made 21.7 30.4
Field Goals Attempted 53.5 60.2
Field Goal % 40.6% 50.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 34.3 33.5
2 Point Shooting % 47.4% 59.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 10.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.2 26.7
3 Point Shooting % 28.3% 39.0%
Free Throws Made 11.4 11.1
Free Throws Attempted 15.9 15.2
Free Throw % 71.4% 73.0%
Ball Control CIT PITT
Rebounds 29.5 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 26.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 9.2
Turnovers 11.8 6.8
Blocked Shots 2.0 6.7
Steals 3.4 6.8
Fouls 13.5 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Citadel

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CIT PITT
Total Possessions 67.1
Effective Scoring Chances 61.9 69.5
% of Possessions with CIT PITT
2 Point Attempt 44.9% 43.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.1% 34.7%
Player Fouled 20.1% 20.1%
Turnover 17.6% 10.1%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 5.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken CIT PITT
Shot Blocked 11.3% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 19.6% 28.6%