NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FRES UNLV
Points 64.1 76.4
Total Points   140.5
Points From 2-Pointers 32.8 42.6
Points From 3-Pointers 20.7 20.8
Points From Free Throws 10.6 13.1
Shooting FRES UNLV
Field Goals Made 23.3 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 54.9 56.6
Field Goal % 42.4% 49.8%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 21.3
2 Pointers Attempted 32.8 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 49.9% 56.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 10.6 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 15.2 18.0
Free Throw % 69.6% 73.0%
Ball Control FRES UNLV
Rebounds 29.6 35.2
Rebounds - Defensive 21.4 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 9.8
Turnovers 11.6 8.9
Blocked Shots 2.2 5.5
Steals 5.2 5.0
Fouls 14.0 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: UNLV

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FRES UNLV
Total Possessions 67.0
Effective Scoring Chances 63.6 67.8
% of Possessions with FRES UNLV
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 48.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 24.6%
Player Fouled 19.2% 20.9%
Turnover 17.3% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken FRES UNLV
Shot Blocked 9.8% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.4% 31.3%