NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CIT SEMO
Points 74.9 66.5
Total Points   141.4
Points From 2-Pointers 44.2 40.4
Points From 3-Pointers 13.4 17.7
Points From Free Throws 17.4 8.4
Shooting CIT SEMO
Field Goals Made 26.5 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 51.6 59.5
Field Goal % 51.5% 43.8%
2 Pointers Made 22.1 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 36.9 39.9
2 Point Shooting % 59.9% 50.5%
3 Pointers Made 4.5 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 14.7 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.3% 30.1%
Free Throws Made 17.4 8.4
Free Throws Attempted 24.4 11.9
Free Throw % 71.4% 70.6%
Ball Control CIT SEMO
Rebounds 35.2 29.1
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 21.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 7.9
Turnovers 11.1 10.4
Blocked Shots 2.4 3.3
Steals 5.3 5.2
Fouls 12.4 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: Citadel

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CIT SEMO
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 66.2 67.0
% of Possessions with CIT SEMO
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 51.0%
3 Point Attempt 18.7% 25.0%
Player Fouled 26.1% 17.8%
Turnover 16.0% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken CIT SEMO
Shot Blocked 5.6% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.1% 22.5%