NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LT UTSA
Points 79.8 69.1
Total Points   148.9
Points From 2-Pointers 37.8 25.7
Points From 3-Pointers 24.7 27.6
Points From Free Throws 17.3 15.9
Shooting LT UTSA
Field Goals Made 27.1 22.0
Field Goals Attempted 60.9 61.1
Field Goal % 44.5% 36.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 12.8
2 Pointers Attempted 39.8 34.0
2 Point Shooting % 47.5% 37.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 9.2
3 Pointers Attempted 21.1 27.1
3 Point Shooting % 39.0% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 17.3 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 24.6 22.4
Free Throw % 70.3% 71.1%
Ball Control LT UTSA
Rebounds 42.7 36.9
Rebounds - Defensive 31.2 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 10.7
Turnovers 8.5 9.5
Blocked Shots 6.2 4.2
Steals 5.5 4.6
Fouls 14.5 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: UTSA

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LT UTSA
Total Possessions 72.4
Effective Scoring Chances 75.4 73.6
% of Possessions with LT UTSA
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 39.7%
3 Point Attempt 24.7% 31.7%
Player Fouled 22.4% 20.0%
Turnover 11.7% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken LT UTSA
Shot Blocked 7.1% 10.4%
Offensive Rebound 30.6% 25.6%