NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring YALE STON
Points 73.2 67.6
Total Points   140.8
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 32.6
Points From 3-Pointers 26.0 22.8
Points From Free Throws 12.0 12.2
Shooting YALE STON
Field Goals Made 26.3 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 60.1 56.9
Field Goal % 43.7% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 16.3
2 Pointers Attempted 36.5 35.6
2 Point Shooting % 48.2% 45.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.7 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 21.3
3 Point Shooting % 36.7% 35.7%
Free Throws Made 12.0 12.2
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 16.7
Free Throw % 69.8% 72.8%
Ball Control YALE STON
Rebounds 37.7 34.4
Rebounds - Defensive 28.3 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 7.2
Turnovers 7.9 9.0
Blocked Shots 2.4 2.9
Steals 5.6 4.6
Fouls 13.4 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Stony Brook

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats YALE STON
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 70.4 67.0
% of Possessions with YALE STON
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 46.3%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 27.7%
Player Fouled 20.5% 19.5%
Turnover 11.4% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken YALE STON
Shot Blocked 5.2% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.7% 20.3%