NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSST OKLA
Points 72.4 70.5
Total Points   142.9
Points From 2-Pointers 40.4 35.0
Points From 3-Pointers 19.0 20.7
Points From Free Throws 13.1 14.8
Shooting MSST OKLA
Field Goals Made 26.5 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 54.2
Field Goal % 46.6% 45.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.2 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 35.7 31.1
2 Point Shooting % 56.5% 56.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 21.1 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 29.9% 29.8%
Free Throws Made 13.1 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 20.0 20.1
Free Throw % 65.5% 73.5%
Ball Control MSST OKLA
Rebounds 33.9 33.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 24.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 8.8
Turnovers 10.6 12.0
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.6
Steals 8.0 5.2
Fouls 15.7 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Oklahoma

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSST OKLA
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 66.7
% of Possessions with MSST OKLA
2 Point Attempt 44.1% 38.8%
3 Point Attempt 26.1% 29.0%
Player Fouled 21.5% 22.5%
Turnover 15.2% 17.2%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 11.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSST OKLA
Shot Blocked 4.9% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 29.3% 26.9%