NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CIT UNCG
Points 66.8 77.0
Total Points   143.8
Points From 2-Pointers 32.2 34.5
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 33.6
Points From Free Throws 14.5 8.9
Shooting CIT UNCG
Field Goals Made 22.8 28.5
Field Goals Attempted 51.6 58.4
Field Goal % 44.2% 48.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 17.3
2 Pointers Attempted 31.8 31.0
2 Point Shooting % 50.6% 55.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 11.2
3 Pointers Attempted 19.7 27.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.9% 40.9%
Free Throws Made 14.5 8.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 12.2
Free Throw % 71.4% 72.8%
Ball Control CIT UNCG
Rebounds 31.0 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 23.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 8.8
Turnovers 11.5 9.7
Blocked Shots 1.7 3.6
Steals 4.7 7.0
Fouls 12.6 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Citadel

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CIT UNCG
Total Possessions 67.3
Effective Scoring Chances 63.8 66.4
% of Possessions with CIT UNCG
2 Point Attempt 41.5% 40.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.7% 35.7%
Player Fouled 23.4% 18.8%
Turnover 17.0% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 10.4% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken CIT UNCG
Shot Blocked 6.2% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 25.1% 27.6%