NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CIT WOF
Points 69.9 75.6
Total Points   145.5
Points From 2-Pointers 35.1 37.3
Points From 3-Pointers 20.5 30.5
Points From Free Throws 14.2 7.8
Shooting CIT WOF
Field Goals Made 24.4 28.8
Field Goals Attempted 54.8 58.6
Field Goal % 44.5% 49.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 34.7 30.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.6% 60.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 10.2
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 27.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 14.2 7.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 12.6
Free Throw % 71.4% 61.9%
Ball Control CIT WOF
Rebounds 31.1 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.6 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 9.0
Turnovers 9.0 10.1
Blocked Shots 2.1 3.5
Steals 5.0 4.2
Fouls 12.6 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Citadel

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CIT WOF
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 66.8
% of Possessions with CIT WOF
2 Point Attempt 45.1% 39.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.2% 35.8%
Player Fouled 22.6% 18.5%
Turnover 13.3% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken CIT WOF
Shot Blocked 6.1% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 22.6% 27.6%