NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GONZ AUB
Points 73.6 78.7
Total Points   152.4
Points From 2-Pointers 41.1 39.0
Points From 3-Pointers 14.9 24.8
Points From Free Throws 17.7 15.0
Shooting GONZ AUB
Field Goals Made 25.5 27.7
Field Goals Attempted 60.8 62.2
Field Goal % 42.0% 44.6%
2 Pointers Made 20.5 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 45.2 39.8
2 Point Shooting % 45.5% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 15.6 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 17.7 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 24.0 20.0
Free Throw % 73.6% 74.8%
Ball Control GONZ AUB
Rebounds 38.5 37.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 12.8 11.4
Turnovers 9.5 8.8
Blocked Shots 3.1 4.7
Steals 5.8 5.4
Fouls 15.4 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Gonzaga

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GONZ AUB
Total Possessions 71.8
Effective Scoring Chances 75.1 74.4
% of Possessions with GONZ AUB
2 Point Attempt 52.2% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 18.0% 26.5%
Player Fouled 22.3% 21.4%
Turnover 13.2% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken GONZ AUB
Shot Blocked 7.6% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 33.3% 30.8%