NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSST AUB
Points 66.7 77.4
Total Points   144.1
Points From 2-Pointers 32.6 39.8
Points From 3-Pointers 16.0 21.7
Points From Free Throws 18.0 15.9
Shooting MSST AUB
Field Goals Made 21.7 27.1
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 57.3
Field Goal % 38.2% 47.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 19.9
2 Pointers Attempted 38.5 34.1
2 Point Shooting % 42.4% 58.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 18.3 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 29.2% 31.1%
Free Throws Made 18.0 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 27.5 21.3
Free Throw % 65.5% 74.8%
Ball Control MSST AUB
Rebounds 37.5 35.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 13.9 9.7
Turnovers 12.2 11.0
Blocked Shots 2.5 5.6
Steals 7.4 6.8
Fouls 16.3 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Auburn

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSST AUB
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 73.6 70.6
% of Possessions with MSST AUB
2 Point Attempt 43.7% 41.2%
3 Point Attempt 20.8% 28.2%
Player Fouled 24.1% 22.6%
Turnover 17.0% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 10.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSST AUB
Shot Blocked 9.9% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 34.7% 29.1%