NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FRES USD
Points 68.2 61.4
Total Points   129.6
Points From 2-Pointers 34.0 30.5
Points From 3-Pointers 20.3 20.5
Points From Free Throws 13.9 10.4
Shooting FRES USD
Field Goals Made 23.8 22.1
Field Goals Attempted 57.8 59.7
Field Goal % 41.1% 36.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 15.2
2 Pointers Attempted 34.6 38.1
2 Point Shooting % 49.2% 40.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.2 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 29.1% 31.5%
Free Throws Made 13.9 10.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.4 15.5
Free Throw % 71.8% 67.5%
Ball Control FRES USD
Rebounds 42.9 34.1
Rebounds - Defensive 31.0 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 9.0
Turnovers 11.6 10.1
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.3
Steals 4.5 4.9
Fouls 14.4 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Fresno St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FRES USD
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.2 68.8
% of Possessions with FRES USD
2 Point Attempt 41.6% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.9% 26.9%
Player Fouled 22.4% 20.6%
Turnover 16.6% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken FRES USD
Shot Blocked 5.7% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 32.1% 22.5%