NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FRES USD
Points 72.5 72.8
Total Points   145.4
Points From 2-Pointers 35.6 38.1
Points From 3-Pointers 22.1 22.3
Points From Free Throws 14.8 12.3
Shooting FRES USD
Field Goals Made 25.2 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 54.2 58.6
Field Goal % 46.5% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 32.0 38.2
2 Point Shooting % 55.6% 49.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 20.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 14.8 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.3 17.1
Free Throw % 69.6% 72.0%
Ball Control FRES USD
Rebounds 32.7 34.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 10.0
Turnovers 12.4 11.4
Blocked Shots 2.5 4.9
Steals 6.8 6.3
Fouls 13.5 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FRES USD
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 66.6 69.6
% of Possessions with FRES USD
2 Point Attempt 39.6% 46.7%
3 Point Attempt 27.4% 24.9%
Player Fouled 23.2% 19.0%
Turnover 17.4% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 9.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken FRES USD
Shot Blocked 8.4% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.6% 28.7%