NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GONZ USD
Points 89.6 65.8
Total Points   155.4
Points From 2-Pointers 51.6 32.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.4 21.8
Points From Free Throws 17.6 12.0
Shooting GONZ USD
Field Goals Made 32.6 23.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.5 61.0
Field Goal % 54.8% 38.2%
2 Pointers Made 25.8 16.0
2 Pointers Attempted 40.7 40.3
2 Point Shooting % 63.4% 39.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 18.8 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.2% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 17.6 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 23.9 16.7
Free Throw % 73.6% 72.1%
Ball Control GONZ USD
Rebounds 40.8 29.6
Rebounds - Defensive 29.8 19.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 10.1
Turnovers 9.4 11.6
Blocked Shots 4.4 2.7
Steals 7.3 5.4
Fouls 13.3 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Gonzaga

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GONZ USD
Total Possessions 72.6
Effective Scoring Chances 74.2 71.1
% of Possessions with GONZ USD
2 Point Attempt 48.0% 47.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.2% 24.5%
Player Fouled 22.9% 18.4%
Turnover 13.0% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 10.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken GONZ USD
Shot Blocked 4.5% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 36.2% 25.4%