NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCA TENN
Points 62.2 84.1
Total Points   146.3
Points From 2-Pointers 23.8 38.5
Points From 3-Pointers 22.2 27.7
Points From Free Throws 16.2 17.9
Shooting UNCA TENN
Field Goals Made 19.3 28.5
Field Goals Attempted 54.6 62.4
Field Goal % 35.4% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 11.9 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 31.6 36.5
2 Point Shooting % 37.6% 52.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 9.2
3 Pointers Attempted 23.0 25.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 35.7%
Free Throws Made 16.2 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 23.7
Free Throw % 75.0% 75.4%
Ball Control UNCA TENN
Rebounds 31.1 43.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 29.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 13.9
Turnovers 12.8 8.5
Blocked Shots 2.1 5.7
Steals 4.4 7.8
Fouls 15.9 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Asheville

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCA TENN
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 77.4
% of Possessions with UNCA TENN
2 Point Attempt 38.6% 42.1%
3 Point Attempt 28.0% 29.8%
Player Fouled 23.0% 22.0%
Turnover 17.8% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 10.8% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCA TENN
Shot Blocked 9.2% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 20.7% 37.4%