NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSST TENN
Points 64.7 74.5
Total Points   139.2
Points From 2-Pointers 29.7 34.7
Points From 3-Pointers 20.7 24.9
Points From Free Throws 14.2 15.0
Shooting MSST TENN
Field Goals Made 21.8 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 56.3 59.6
Field Goal % 38.7% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 14.9 17.3
2 Pointers Attempted 33.0 32.2
2 Point Shooting % 45.0% 53.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 23.3 27.4
3 Point Shooting % 29.7% 30.3%
Free Throws Made 14.2 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.7 19.9
Free Throw % 65.5% 75.4%
Ball Control MSST TENN
Rebounds 37.0 38.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 26.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 11.3
Turnovers 12.9 10.1
Blocked Shots 1.9 4.3
Steals 6.8 7.4
Fouls 15.5 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Tennessee

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSST TENN
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 69.9 72.4
% of Possessions with MSST TENN
2 Point Attempt 39.1% 38.7%
3 Point Attempt 27.6% 32.9%
Player Fouled 21.5% 21.8%
Turnover 18.1% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 10.4% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSST TENN
Shot Blocked 7.3% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 30.2% 30.8%